What future for Europe?

My essay "Pressing juice out of the Brussels cabbage - Poland and the European Union" appeared this week in the dossier "Europe – the final countdown or resurrection time?" on the website of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung office in Brussels.

Advocates of political federalism suggest that the major problem is the old-fashioned attachment to nation-states defending their dubious sovereignty, which, however, is a misperception. Nation-states and European institutions are playing the same game (of austerity), i.e. no transfer of power between these two „levels‟ is actually supposed to change anything. By focusing on nation-states, advocates of political federalism evade the real issues such as the shifting balance of forces between capital and labour, the internal trade imbalances and the dismantling of social security nets in many European countries brought about by austerity. In the present situation, a political federation would only further empower European leaders and technocrats who already proved incapable of creating a broader and bolder vision.
[...]
[A] way to create a more perfect union would be federalism, but not a purely political one. We need to put first things first. And the most important challenge is not a transfer of power, but the reclaiming of citizenship. In recent years, many Europeans saw their social citizenship diminished. It must not be so. If the Union is to survive, it must protect and enhance social rights already gained by people in the framework of nation-states, not to destroy them. A genuine social and economic federalism must start with another „transfer‟: the definition of social citizenship on the European level. What rights and entitlements should every European citizen enjoy? What level of social security is the Union obliged to deliver?
When we begin with citizenship, the rest will follow.

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Adam Ostolski

We are more progressive than our political elite

Poland enjoys a reputation of a country rather hostile towards sexual diversity. Last week, a Robert Węgrzyn, an MP for the Civic Platform, did something to reinforce this view. When asked on the TV about his opinion on legal acknowledgement of gay and lesbian unions, he answered: "you can forget about gay men but I would gladly watch lesbians." His words provoked outrage and indignation, and his local party structures demanded that he be expelled from the PO. Węgrzyn apologised, half-heartedly, though he does not seem to be quite convinced he should. The apology notwithstanding, on his official website one finds also a statement entitled bravely "I did not offend a person". "I won't let myself be offended in public", he cautions, as if in a pathetic attempt to reverse the charge.

Węgrzyn is, at best, a third-rank MP, so one needs not ascribe too great a weight to his calamities. It is much more discomforting, however, that the foreign minister Radosław Sikorski came to his rescue. "Journalists complain that politicians are boring and speak only in slogans, but when someone makes a dubious joke they crucify him," he said on radio. And he added a joke of his own, saying that Węgrzyn "should get a rap across the knuckles and be made to do 30 push ups." Some may find Sikorski's sense of humour no less embarassing than the Węgrzyn's. The implied acceptance of corporal punishment is hardly enjoyable, as is the way the minister reframed the debate. Instead of taking the issues of sexism, homophobia and verbal aggression as seriously as they deserve, he seems to focus attention on the possible inconvenience into which the MP's words may have put the governing party.

The political correctness is still shallow, and the aacceptance of homophobic language within the political class seems to be widespread. But in what extent does this reflect the popular mood? When we look at the developments in public opinion during the recent decade, we can see that anti-gay opinions remain widespread, but the overall trend is progressive.

Trends in anti-gay attitudes in Poland, 2001-2010 (CBOS, June 2010)

The most striking change concerns the level of acceptance of the view that "Homosexuality is not a normal thing and should not be tolerated." Between 2001 and 2010 the ranks of those ready to agree with it halved, going from 41% down to 23% (green line). It seems there are more opponents of marriage equality than at the beginning of the noughties (red line), but this is explained by the growing ranks of those who support civil unions as a separate institution for LGBT people (yellow line).The most interesting change concerns the acceptance of LGBT Equality Marches. The number of those ready to curb the right of assembly to exclude LGBT is still high, but it went down significantly within a couple of months between July and December 2005 (blue line). It seems that the growth in acceptance of Equality Marches belongs to the lasting effects of the culture wars waged in the era of the "Fourth Republic."

The opinion is divided on civil unions. (CBOS, June 2010)

The attitudes of the Polish population towards LGBT rights are on average more conservative than in the West of Europe, and in some respects more conservative than in other Central European countries, like the Czech Republic or Hungary. But the Polish society is neither as conservative or as homophobic as our political class. One may expect that a moderate LGBT rights agenda should attract as many voters as it might repel. Oddly enough, the society has already moved on. It is the elite that seems set to stay behind.

Adam Ostolski

Nuclear power and public trust

Last week the cabinet accepted guidelines for the draft law regulating the use of nuclear energy in Poland. The ministers discussed i.a. the question of liability for 'nuclear damage,' separate insurance for the transport of nuclear material, government's guarantees, as well as the information of general public and local communities about the safety of nuclear installations. The governement's plan is to have the new nuclear regulation bill passed until June this year, construction works are to begin by 2016 and an nuclear power plant is to be operating since 2022. Whether the blueprint is realistic or not, the coalition seems determined to follow the chosen path, and the nuclear ambitions of the goverment enjoy support of major opposition parties. There seems to be an overwhelming consensus on the political scene.

And what about social attitudes? According to the surveys realized by CBOS (Centre for Public Opinion Research), between 1987 and 2008 the opponents of nuclear power clearly outnumbered those ready to accept it.

Nuclear power plants in Poland -- for or against? (CBOS, August 2008)

Since 2008, the opinion seems to be shifting. According to different surveys, there is either a small majority in favour, or a small majority against the Polish nuclear programme. As far as the public opinion is concerned, the issue is undecided.

The change in public mood can be also seen in the report Europeans and Nuclear Safety published by the Eurobarometer in March 2010. Poland is among the countries, where more than a quarter of the population (25% - 30%) supports an increase in the use of nuclear energy. Even though as many as 50% of the respondents agree that the risks of nuclear power as an energy source outweigh its benefits, while only 38% thinks the opposite, there is a visible shift in the opinion. In 2006 only 26% tended to think that there are more benefits than risks involved. The rise of 12 percentage points is the biggest one in Europe, with Ireland (+10pp) and the Czech Republic (+9pp) coming next.

Interestingly enough, six out of eight countries with biggest support for an increased use of nuclear energy (25% - 30%) are postcommunist ones. What does this strange legacy of the Iron Curtain precisely mean? Is it just the fear of being dependent on Russia as energy provider? Or does it also express an East European civilizational complex, the feeling of being belated in terms of technology, and the wish to "catch up with the West"?

Whatever the explanation, there still the issue of public trust. Will government be able to convince the public that nucleaer energy may be safe? And, which is more difficult, that it can be produced safely even in Poland? There are in Europe countries like Sweden or the Czech Republic, where the great majority of people believe that nuclear energy may be safe. There are countries divided, like France or Germany, where only half of the population seems to be convinced. But Poland -- together with Romania and Ireland -- represents still another pattern. While many people tend to agree that It is possible to operate a nuclear power plant in a safe manner (64%), they seem less convinced that The nuclear safety authority in Poland sufficiently ensures the safe operation of nuclear power plant(s) (38%), and even less that The Polish legislation sufficiently ensures nuclear safety (31%).

Europeans and Nuclear Safety (Eurobarometer, March 2010)

It seems that a significant portion of the population believes that nuclear energy may be produced safely, but... not in Poland. Poles mistrust their own government and institutions more than they mistrust the technology.

And they may well have good reason not to trust. On 3th December 2010, the President of National Atomic Energy Agency (Państwowa Agencja Atomistyki), Prof. Michał Waligórski, was dismissed from his function. His pro-nuclear stance notwithstanding, he had had a highly critical assesment of the atomic draft law proposed by the government. Along with many specific concerns, he had pointed out that the goverment's nuclear programme was "chaotic and inconsistent," and had "incomprehensible logical structure." He was also asking, why the government ignored the Safety Infrastructure Guide (DS424) adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The Civic Platform's government found his remarks "unconstructive," and instead of changing the policy, changed the man. It seems that even those in favour of Poland's nuclear ambitions may have good reasons to be scared.

Adam Ostolski